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ASSESSING THE RELIABILITY, RESILIENCE AND VULNERABILITY OF WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM UNDER MULTIPLE UNCERTAIN SOURCES

2021年10月27日 16:04 水利水电学院 点击:[]

作 者:Ren, KangHuang, ShengzhiHuang, QiangWang, HaoLeng, GuoyongFang, WeiLi, Pei

作者机构:State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of ChinaXi'an University of Technology Xi'an710048 ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River BasinChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing100038 ChinaState Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface ProcessesInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100101 China

出 版 物:《Journal of Cleaner Production》

年 卷 期:2020年第252卷

核心收录:

中图分类:X[环境科学、安全科学]

学科分类:08[工学]

基 金:We sincerely appreciate the helpful and constructive comments provide by the editor and three anonymous reviewers. This research is jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( 51879213 and 51709221 )the National Key Research and Development Program of China ( 2017YFC0405900 )the Planning Project of Science and Technology of Water Resources of Shaanxi ( 2017slkj-16 and 2017slkj-19 )Key laboratory research projects of the education department of Shaanxi province (17JS104)the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin ( China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research ) ( IWHR-SKL-KF201803 )and the Belt and Road Special Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering ( 2018490711 ). Appendix A

主 题:Reservoirs (water)Decision makingDigital storageProbabilityReliabilityRunoffSimulated annealingWater supplyWater supply systemsEncounter probabilityInterbasin water transferReservoir optimizationsSimulated annealing algorithmsSpatialtemporal distributionSynthetic runoff generatorUncertaintyWater resources management

摘 要:Water reservoirs often contain multiple runoff water sources, each of which is affected by a variety of uncertainties. The encounter situation defined in multiple water sources is the imbalance spatial-temporal distribution of water resources, which has a profound impact on the risk of water scarcity. This study presents a framework to evaluate the performance of a water supply system considering the encounter situations between different water sources. Based on the Han to Wei Inter-Basin Water Transfer (IBWT) project in the Shaanxi Province of China, the synchronous and asynchronous encounter probabilities are calculated using copula-based approach to characterize the encounter risks for water supply. Then, the synthetic monthly series of different water sources are generated through a synthetic streamflow-generated method based on the simulated annealing algorithm and fragment method, which is applied as the input variables of a reservoir optimization operation model. The metrics of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability are used to evaluate the performance of the water supply system. Results indicate that (1) regardless of whether the annual flow series is a full sequence or a pre- or post-changed sequence, the encounter probabilities between different water sources remain stable. However, there are obvious changes in the encounter probabilities of each month between different water sources; (2) The generated monthly flow series effectively preserves the internal composition of the historical data, which are adequate to evaluate the performance of the water supply system; (3) as the water demand increases, the reservoir s storage capacity decreases, and the reliability of the water supply depends on the wet encounter situations for different water sources; (4) the ability to describe the states of the system varies significantly according to the metrics selected, and the choice of the metrics of reliability, resilience (max), and vulnerability (mean) can adequately describe the states of the water supply s

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